Playoff Preview: Toronto Marlies vs. Utica Comets
After an 11-day break thanks to their opening round bye as North Division regular-season champions, the Toronto Marlies will take the ice on April 27 to commence their Calder Cup playoffs.
Their opponent: the Utica Comets, who are coming off of a two-game sweep of the Laval Rocket, which included an overtime series-clinching winner.
The Marlies are in a fascinating spot. Through much of the season, Toronto kept pace with the eventual regular-season champion Calgary Wranglers. With numerous injuries, departures from the roster, and an overall dip in performance, the Marlies floundered to a 2-8-3 record in the final month of the season.
Does this extended break help them mentally refocus and get healthy? Or will Utica have the edge coming into a short best-of-five series against a Toronto team that struggled late in the campaign?
Here’s a full preview of the Marlies’ upcoming series.
Departures and additions
The Marlies played Utica well in the regular season. Toronto beat the Comets four times in regulation, took another in overtime, and dropped their most recent matchup on April 7.
Granted, there isn’t a lot to take away from most of these matchups, as both teams have undergone fairly significant changes over the course of the campaign.
The Marlies lost significant offensive contributors before the trade deadline in Adam Gaudette and Joey Anderson without acquiring replacements. Dryden Hunt went out the door as well, though Radim Zohorna entered the fold in that transaction.
Andreas Johnsson, Nikita Okhotyuk, and Jack Dugan exited prior to the deadline for Utica.
The Marlies have had an influx of late-season reinforcements in Carl Dahlstrom, Topi Niemela, Ryan Tverberg, and Dmitry Ovchinnikov. Roni Hirvonen will be available for his AHL debut as well.
Though both rosters have undergone notable adjustments over the course of the season, they’re both formidable teams that will make for a fun divisional semifinal.
Who’s going to be available?
The Marlies players who are and aren’t actually available could make or break the series.
You can make a damn good case that Joe Woll was the Marlies’ most valuable player this season despite only playing 21 games. With a 16-4-1 record and a .927 save percentage, Woll would’ve been in contention for major season-end awards had he played the full campaign.
His status provides a major potential swing in the series. If Matt Murray isn’t cleared soon to back up Ilya Samsonov, Woll will be needed as the No. 2 with the Maple Leafs through the start of the Marlies’ playoff run, at the very least. That would result in Erik Kallgren or Keith Petruzzelli getting the nod against Utica.
I hope Greg Moore goes with Petruzzelli in that likely scenario. The 24-year-old has posted better numbers than Kallgren at every step of the season. It seems like an obvious choice on paper when you look at Kallgren’s .883 save percentage, but Kallgren’s NHL experience and previous success in the SHL playoffs - which helped him land a contract with the Maple Leafs in the first place - could make him an intriguing option for Moore.
In a short best-of-five series, Moore can’t afford to fumble the goaltending decision should Woll be unavailable.
Woll isn’t the only significant piece with a question mark for the Marlies, though. The Marlies desperately need an injection of goal-scoring to the lineup and Bobby McMann would certainly provide it, should he be ready to return from a knee injury that’s kept him out since March 21.
Speaking of knee injuries, Mac Hollowell hasn’t played since January 11 due to a fractured knee cap (ouch). His return seems imminent as skated with the team last week, per the GOAT Marlies reporter Nick Barden.
Max Ellis and Dmitry Ovchinnikov, who both missed time at the end of the regular season, would be welcome depth additions as well.
Nolan Foote is the lone question mark for Utica. The potent goal scorer didn’t play in Game 2 against Laval for unknown reasons.
Special teams will be vital
The Marlies have struggled to score at five-on-five all season. Per AHL Tracker, the Marlies rank 27th in five-on-five goals per game in the regular season. Only the Ontario Reign scored fewer five-on-five goals and made the postseason.
Toronto made up for their lack of even-strength scoring with the league’s second-best power play. The Marlies operated at 23.6% despite seeing a rotating cast of characters on the two units throughout the campaign.
That’s an area the Marlies will need to take advantage of in this series. Utica’s special teams were abysmal in the regular season. The Comets’ 77.4% penalty kill ranked 27th in the AHL, while their dormant 15.8% power play was second-worst league-wide.
X-Factors
Pontus Holmberg is a unique player. He’s the skater Leafs fans have seen the most this season, but his counting stats haven’t reached the heights I expected from him in the AHL.
Holmberg has 10 goals and 22 points in 38 AHL games this season. Not quite the production you would anticipate from a player that didn’t look out of place in the NHL.
That’s not for a lack of trying, though. I’ve manually tracked 36 games from the Marlies season over the course of the campaign and Holmberg has been a consistent standout. In the 16 AHL games of his that I’ve compiled stats for, Holmberg has been the team’s best player at making controlled plays in transition and creating scoring chances at five-on-five.
The Marlies will need Holmberg to play a vital role not only as the likely shutdown center going up against Graeme Clarke or Alexander Holtz, but also to kickstart offense at even strength.
Speaking of Holtz, he’s the biggest X-factor for the Comets. No player in the series has the potential to take over the series like him. He had an awkward season, playing a minimal role in the NHL before joining Utica, which has hurt his stock.
But make no mistake about Holtz’s skill. He was just under a point per game with the Comets in 2021-22 and scored the most U20 goals per game in the AHL since Jason Spezza in 2002-03. The kid can play.
After an underwhelming regular season where he wasn’t able to break into the Devils’ lineup, a big performance from Holtz would go a long way to restoring some of his shine.
The coaching battle
I’m very interested to see how the coaching matchup plays out in this series.
On one side you have Kevin Dineen, an Olympic gold medal-winning head coach, Stanley Cup champion assistant, and former AHL coach of the year.
On the other, you have Greg Moore, a head coach making his playoff debut in the professional ranks.
Moore took lots of shots from Marlies fans last summer after the team missed the playoffs. He’s proved his worth in the regular season with the team’s results, but the postseason is a whole other beast.
Dineen has significantly more experience. He’s been there and done that in some of the highest-pressure games a coach can be in. That’s a tough intro to the Calder Cup playoffs for Moore.
Series prediction
As mentioned, this series could go many different ways depending on who is available for the Marlies.
I’ll say Toronto takes the series in four games (a reminder it’s a best-of-five). I like the upside of the Marlies’ depth more than Utica’s, which only increases if the likes of McMann and Hollowell come back.
It should be a close matchup to kick off the Calder Cup playoffs for the Marlies.