Cushman's Maple Leafs prospect rankings, 2022 preseason edition

The preseason is nearly finished, European leagues are about a month into their 2022-23 schedules, and junior hockey just got underway. It’s time to dive into the Toronto Maple Leafs prospect pool once again.

Before we get into the rankings, let’s establish the criteria to be eligible for this list. The player must meet each of the following:

• NHL exclusive rights are owned by the Maple Leafs, either by being signed or drafted by the club.

  • This excludes players on AHL or ECHL contracts, meaning the likes of Keith Petruzzelli, Dryden McKay, and Marshall Rifai, among others, are not included.

• They are under the age of 24. There has to be an age cutoff at some point and while some players over 24 could still be considered prospects, I feel this is a fair age to split the organization at. It doesn’t make much sense to me to consider 25-year-old Erik Kallgren a prospect while the younger Ilya Samsonov contends for Toronto’s starting gig, for example.

  • The U24 age cutoff means players such as Mac Hollowell, Joseph Woll, and Joey Anderson, among others, are not included.

• The cutoff for experience is 25 career NHL games. This is the cutoff for Calder Trophy eligibility, so it only makes sense to it here as well.

  • The 25-game cutoff means U24 players Timothy Liljegren and Rasmus Sandin are not included.

  • Nick Robertson, who has not played more than 25 games in the NHL but is no longer Calder Trophy eligible having played over six games in consecutive NHL seasons, is included on the list.

• Finally, Rodion Amirov remains omitted from my rankings. While he expects to return to action later this year following his brain tumour diagnosis early in 2022, rating his value as a hockey commodity still feels odd to me until he is back playing games.

The following are the factors considered when forming this ranking. While it isn’t a perfect science by any means, this is roughly in order of highest weight to least:

1. High-end potential/skill

2. Performance/production from the 2021-22 season

3. NHL readiness

4. Likelihood of making the NHL

5. Performance/production prior to the 2021-22 season

6. Quality of competition

The plus/minus change for each prospect is relative to their placement on my last long-form rankings in December 2021. The movement is also relative to prospects that remain on the list from the prior ranking. For example, a player doesn’t get a “+1” for moving up only due to a player graduating from the list, just as a player doesn’t get a “-1” for moving down the list only due to a player being added to the organization.

Enjoy!

I don’t think Matt Knies could’ve asked for a better Draft +1 season.

• Point per game in the NCAA ✅

• Team USA at the World Juniors ✅

• Team USA at the Olympics ✅

• Big Ten All-Rookie ✅

• Big Ten Second All-Star Team ✅

All of this as a prospect drafted in the back half of the second round months before the start of the 2021-22 season. It was a truly special campaign for Knies.

A lot has been made about Knies’ decision to return to school for the 2022-23 season. It may be the unpopular opinion, but I agree that this decision is best for his development. Expectations were wayyyyyy too high at the end of 2021-22. If Knies turned pro, he would’ve played a few regular season games like Nick Abruzzese did and been a black ace for the playoffs. He wasn’t sliding into a top-six position, that was an unrealistic scenario.

Returning to Minnesota, Knies can continue developing as a leader on a team with championship aspirations. He will have the opportunity to take the step from “great” to “dominant”. With Ben Meyers, Blake McLaughlin, and Sammy Walker all turning pro, Knies will be leaned on as the team’s primary offensive contributor. He will also be leaned on to take a bigger role defensively.

I understand why some Toronto fans were frustrated when Knies decided to return to school rather than join the Leafs, especially when some characterized the decision as returning to Minnesota rather than taking a spot in the Leafs’ top-six. That could very well be the case, but I have a hard time believing that was what was presented to him. Instead, I think the much more realistic scenario is that Toronto presented a development plan with the Marlies if Knies was interested in turning pro.

Knies will still be eligible to play for Toronto in the playoffs should he be good enough to make the lineup. He will almost certainly sign his entry-level contract at the end of Minnesota’s postseason run, at which point he will get a handful of games in the NHL to show whether he should be in Toronto’s playoff lineup or not.

His 2021-22 campaign was fantastic but it is important to take a step back and look at the bigger picture. It’s easy to get too high on a prospect too quick, rush them into a lineup spot, and then get fatigued if they take longer than you wanted to perform. Patience is key and that remains true for Matt Knies.

That previous comment “it’s easy to get too high on a prospect too quick, rush them into a lineup spot, and then get fatigued if they take longer than you wanted to perform” perfectly applies to Nick Robertson.

After demolishing the OHL as an 18-year-old, Robertson was thrust into an incredibly unusual development pattern. He played NHL playoff games in the bubble, mixed in with the Leafs the following season in minimal minutes before getting hurt, and then played in a pseudo-AHL as an underage, junior-eligible player.

The 2021-22 season was supposed to be one to get back on the tracks. That was delayed when Robertson suffered a broken leg on the opening weekend of the AHL season.

And yet, after all the chaos that has been the past two years for Nick Robertson, he still showed his potential at the end of the 2021-22 AHL season. He was legitimately dominant at even-strength for the Marlies late in the year, progressing from a somewhat narrow-minded, shot-first winger to a dynamic, play-driving presence.

Robertson works non-stop on the ice, almost to his detriment. He’s tenacious on pucks, hounding defensemen on the breakout. He’s 110% all the time to the point where taking a step back and slowing things down is an element he can work on.

Robertson will take time to adjust to the NHL just as he did in the AHL. When he gets that legitimate extended run with the Maple Leafs, one where he plays more than 8 minutes a night and begins to feel comfortable in the league, watch out.

Even with his point production cooling off in the back half of the year, Topi Niemela had a season to remember in Finland.

On the campaign's final day, Niemela broke the record for scoring among U20 defensemen in Finland’s top professional league. His 32 points in 48 games topped Sami Vatanen’s mark from the 2010-11 season.

Drafted as a player known more for his defensive qualities, Niemela has rounded into a playmaking blue-liner that can more than chip in offensively at even strength and on the power play. His defensive results have slipped as he’s added more of an activation-oriented offensive style, but it has also taken his upside to the next level.

I don’t anticipate Niemela’s production to increase this year with Karpat. He remains on their second pair to start the year behind David Rundblad and likely won’t have the ice-time to improve his production year-over-year. That isn’t a concern regarding his development, but it is something to be aware of.

Niemela’s AHL debut in the spring following the Liiga season will be highly anticipated as the top defense prospect in the system by a wide margin. Niemela joins Liljegren and Sandin as U24 defensemen with top-four upside in the organization

Knies, Robertson, and Niemela have all vaulted themselves into public consciousness over the past two or three years with breakout campaigns. On the other hand, Roni Hirvonen has had much more of a linear progression.

Hirvonen moved to HIFK last season and enjoyed a pretty underrated season. He was a consistent positive presence on their third line and power play. His nine goals and 26 points in 49 games don’t jump off of the page but ranked top five in U20 Liiga scoring. Despite poor luck that hurt his on-ice goal share, Hirvonen pushed play in the right direction, ranking top ten in Corsi-for at 60.9 percent.

Another strong showing against his age group at the 2022 World Juniors only reiterated Hirvonen’s upside as a top nine, hard-working playmaker.

Hirvonen has played a fair amount of centre in his career but has made a move to left wing which seems to be where he will remain. HIFK played him at left wing all of the 2021-22 season and though they experimented with him at centre early this season, he has since moved back to the left wing.

Similar to Niemela, Hirvonen’s AHL debut in the spring following the conclusion of the Liiga season will be highly anticipated.

Truthfully, I didn’t know much about Fraser Minten heading into the 2022 NHL Draft and was a bit underwhelmed when he was Toronto’s selection at 38th overall. Thankfully I learned my lesson last year when I had the same feeling after the Matt Knies pick.

In familiarizing myself with Minten’s game following his selection, it became clear why Toronto was so high on him.

Minten possesses a lot of raw tools that the Maple Leafs covet in a prospect. He’s an intelligent player, evident in his responsibility in his own zone, penalty killing, and utilization of space in transition. He’s a shot threat from the half wall and around the net. He showed flashes of upside as a playmaker as well, connecting on some really nice plays over the WHL season. And a trend recently for Toronto, he has a high work ethic on the ice and is very engaged physically.

The tools are there, but Minten still has a long way to go. We saw the upside in his game in the preseason, where he pushed play in the right direction lower in the lineup. We also saw that he needs improvement during the rookie tournament when he had some struggles connecting with higher-skill players.

Kamloops is a great place for Minten to continue to work and grow his game. On the younger side of the 2022 draft class, Minten has two more years of junior hockey before he’s even an option for the Marlies. He’s got the kit, the next two years are about connecting those tools and blossoming into a dominant junior player.

I’m a huge fan of Nick Moldenhauer and was ecstatic to see the Maple Leafs land him in the third round despite trading down.

Buckle up if you haven’t heard the story of Moldenhauer’s 2021-22 season. A mono-like virus kept him out of the lineup for the first two months of the season, essentially erasing the work he had put in over the offseason to add weight. Then, when he finally returned to the ice, an arrant skate hit him in the face on his first shift of the season. The injury required emergency surgery, a blood transfusion, and 175 stitches.

Despite all of that adversity, Moldenhauer was still able to come back and put up over a point per game in the USHL with 43 points in 41 games.

If Moldenhauer was able to do that with everything that occurred early in the 2021-22 campaign, I can’t wait to see what he can accomplish in the USHL this time around with a clean bill of health.

Moldenhauer spent most of the 2021-22 season on the right wing but has shifted to centre to begin the season. He also played at centre during the Maple Leafs’ development camp, which could indicate this is where Toronto sees him long-term.

Pontus Holmberg has been a standout at Maple Leafs’ training camp, earning opportunities with NHL regulars throughout the preseason.

It’s easy to see why. Holmberg doesn’t play a particularly flashy game but he’s a smart player who complements higher-skill players well. It seems like he’s always in the right place to continue the play in the offensive zone, a skill that especially stood out when playing with William Nylander in the preseason.

Holmberg exploded in the 2021 SHL playoffs, going from a bottom-six centre to the playoffs MVP for Vaxjo. He maintained that torrid pace last season and has had no early issues transitioning to the North American game, albeit in five AHL games and a couple of NHL rookie tournament games and the preseason.

It’s important to note that Holmberg is already 23 years old having been drafted as an overage prospect and having spent the first year of his entry-level contract back in Sweden. An accelerated timeline for his contribution should be expected to an extent.

Holmberg seems destined to play as the Marlies top line centre and mix in for the Maple Leafs sooner rather than later.

Alex Steeves blew away expectations in 2021-22. Entering the campaign as an intriguing NCAA free agent that had impressed in development camp before missing most of the rookie tournament and all of training camp due to injury, Steeves came out of the gate incredibly hot with the Marlies.

Steeves hovered around a point per game for the first half of the AHL season, results good enough to get him a three-game stint with Toronto in December.

Steeves maintained his high shot rate from the NCAA in the AHL last year, an incredibly positive sign for his potential to score goals at a consistent rate. He was a goal threat at even strength and on the power play, though his assist rate at even strength was much more on the average side.

Another player that has impressed in the preseason, Steeves’ work ethic, goal-scoring ability, and penalty-killing make him a player that is easy to see in a bottom-six NHL role in the near future. I’d like to see him return to the Marlies in 2022-23 and take his game to the next level, becoming more of a dual threat offensively while producing improved defensive results.

Toronto hasn’t signed many NCAA free agents to NHL contracts but Steeves appears to be the exact type of undrafted signing that can really help round out a prospect pool when you have a lack of draft picks.

It’s harsh to drop Nick Abruzzese three spots and I will say this is less about Abruzzese and more about the trio that has jumped over him.

As a smaller forward that isn’t a particularly great skater, the path to making an impact in an NHL lineup is a bit more difficult for Abruzzese. He’s a skilled playmaker who could fit nicely as a complementary piece with talented shooters if he is able to figure out how to be an effective piece at the professional level without high-end skating.

That being said, all Abruzzese has gone since his final year in the USHL is put up points. He was fantastic as a freshman with Harvard and didn’t miss a beat in 2021-22 despite returning to action after a year and a half between games.

Abruzzese’s already shown positional versatility having played all three forward positions over the course of training camp as well. I doubt he will be a centre long-term but the ability to play both wings is a valuable asset.

Given Abruzzese’s slightly advanced age (he’s already 23), lack of size, and mediocre skating, I gave the edge to the three that jumped over him.

One of my favourite prospects in the Maple Leafs organization, Ryan Tverberg had a breakout campaign in 2021-22.

A year removed from being drafted in the seventh round out of the OJHL, Tverberg was scoring at a point per game rate in the NCAA and earned an invite to Team Canada camp for the original 2022 World Juniors.

Tverberg is an incredibly fun player to watch. He showcased his skating and transition ability with UConn last season, creating numerous rush chances by aggressively attacking the offensive blue-line with speed. Tverberg drives to the net with or without the puck, looking to power his way to dangerous areas. Off the puck, he remains just as tenacious, looking to run over anything and everything.

Sure, Tverberg had a high shooting percentage that is likely to regress some in 2022-23. But he also only scored one power-play goal and five total power-play points. Even if some of Tverberg’s shooting luck at even strength regresses, a progression in his power-play results should more than make up for it.

After primarily playing as a right winger over the past two years, Tverberg has begun the 2022-23 NCAA season at centre. He could remain at that position long-term, but I think he’s better suited on the wing where he can be more aggressive on the ice without needing to worry about his defensive assignments quite as much.

This year, I’d like to see Tverberg be utilized on the penalty kill in a major way. His speed and tenacity make him a prime candidate to develop into a strong penalty killer.

It’s easy to forget that the 2021-22 season was the first in a year and a half for many prospects out of the 2021 NHL Draft. That was the case for Ty Voit, who made the jump from a bottom-six winger in 2019-20 to first-line centre upon returning to action in 2021-22.

And yet, Voit made it look easy. Despite not getting a ton of help on a young Sarnia team, Voit was an electric offensive presence in the OHL last season while playing at a brand new position. He was one of the top even-strength playmakers in the OHL, racking up 31 5v5 primary assists to rank third in the league.

Not to say he has this level of upside, but watching Voit is like watching a low-end Mitch Marner. Voit certainly doesn’t have the same level of elite offensive attributes and two-way ability, but the skill set is very similar to Marner’s, just at a lower end. Whether it’s the way Voit skates, his dominant puck handling in the offensive zone, or his vision and playmaking, I often find myself thinking back to Marner when reviewing his tape.

Voit shifted back to right-wing in Sarnia’s brief spell in the OHL playoffs and has remained there to begin the 2022-23 season. With a bit more help on the Sting this year (or as a mover at the trade deadline), Voit could very well push to be one of the top scorers in the OHL.

I’ve liked Filip Kral’s game for multiple years. He isn’t elite at one particular skill but he does a lot of things well. He’s a good skater that can evade a level of pressure, he’s a solid passer on the breakout, and he’s played on both special teams at the AHL level.

Kral’s season-long numbers don’t especially stand out with 21 points in 58 games. There’s a stretch of play last year that really impressed when he got a chance on the Marlies’ top pairing that makes me believe we could see Kral take the next step in 2022-23.

In the 16 games from December 12 through February 2, Kral lined up on the top pairing 10 times, often with Carl Dahlstrom. During this time, Kral scored 15 points and was a positive impact player on special teams as well.

Looking at how the roster is currently projected, Kral is a borderline lock for a top pairing gig with the Marlies this time around.

With consistent top pairing minutes and special teams opportunities, I like Kral’s chances of emerging as the clear #2 defense prospect in the organization and possibly even earning his NHL debut in 2022-23.

Ah, the enigma that is Semyon Der-Arguchintsev. We’re going on five years since he was drafted and for the most part, his strengths remain the same, his weaknesses remain in the same areas, his NHL upside is hard to project, and yet he is still one of the most fascinating prospects in the organization.

There’s no denying Der-Arguchintsev’s puck skills and elusiveness. He can dazzle with the puck on his stick, make defenders miss while slithering his way into the zone, and send passes you wouldn’t even think to attempt. He’s also begun to shoot the puck more, a major criticism of his game for multiple seasons.

But at the same time, Der-Arguchintsev hasn’t put on much size, has struggled to adapt to physicality at times, and isn’t much of a defensive presence.

Marlies management lauded Der-Arguchintsev’s progression from the beginning of the season to year’s end in their final media availability. At 22 years old, this isn’t a make-or-break season for Der-Arguchintsev quite yet, but it is vital to see legitimate steps toward becoming a high-end AHL scorer at the very least.

It was a tough rookie season in the AHL for Mikhail Abramov. Coming off of a QMJHL championship and an excellent career with Victoriaville, many were high on Abramov’s chances of coming into the Marlies and producing in the middle-six right away.

Abramov got the middle-six opportunity but failed to convert on it. With seven goals and 28 points in 66 games, he struggled to find consistency at the professional level in his maiden season.

As disappointing as his rookie season was, he still has those offensive tools that made him an exciting player in the QMJHL. With a season of AHL hockey under his belt, Abramov could bounce right back up this list if he puts his early struggles behind him and rounds into form with the Marlies this season.

A lingering injury from the end of the 2021-22 campaign has put a halt on those aspirations. Still, Abramov is one of the prospects I’m most intrigued to see in 2022-23.

William Villeneuve is slowly making a fan out of me. It’s impossible to deny the raw upside when you look at his 6-foot-2 frame, offensive skill set, development as a two-way player in the QMJHL, and the fact that he’s a right-shot defenseman.

And while those facts are true, I’ve been slow to come around on Villeneuve due to his lack of foot speed and questionable decision-making at times. His performance last season, particularly at the Memorial Cup, gave me confidence in his development and that Villeneuve is on the right path.

I wonder if Villeneuve could benefit from time in the ECHL to begin the year. The use of the Growlers was a big benefit for Mac Hollowell and Joey Duszak in 2018-19, playing big minutes in an important role to help with their transition to the pro game rather than playing on the Marlies’ third pair.

Villeneuve may receive enough ice-time with the Marlies that a stint with Newfoundland may not be necessary, but it is certainly something to entertain should he find himself on the Marlies’ third pair or as a rotational piece.

Mikko Kokkonen’s path fascinates me. He is the youngest Liiga debutant in the league’s history, appearing for Jukurit when he was just 15 years old. Kokkonen was a regular in the league in his draft year but still slid all the way to the third round. And since, he hasn’t taken a notable step.

Kokkonen’s versatile with the ability to play both sides. He’s also a slight departure from other defense prospects in the system, where he’s known more for his defensive game than being an offensive-leaning blue-liner.

I expect Kokkonen’s stats to improve coming to the Marlies. The system Toronto plays seems to be better suited for his style, encouraging defensemen to be involved in the play and activate often. This should unlock more offensive upside in his game and hopefully result in improved performance versus what we saw last year with Lahti.

I think Curtis Douglas may have been the hardest prospect to rank this year.

At one point, I had him in the top 15, then shuffled him almost outside the top 20. I landed on #17 and I’m still not sure if that’s right.

Douglas is just such a unique prospect to try to evaluate. He’s got serious concerns regarding his skating and mobility to overcome. His skill set has him limited in upside to not much more than a fourth liner. And yet, if he improves his skating enough to make the NHL, he’ll be one of the most unique players in the league even if it is only in a limited role.

Douglas showed much more offensive upside than was anticipated as an AHL rookie. He’s got surprisingly good hands and can move the puck well. As mentioned, mobility and keeping up with NHL pace is a major hurdle to overcome but there’s much more than a big body here in Douglas.

Patience will be key. Marlies GM Ryan Hardy has stated numerous times that their development plan with Douglas is more in line with the timeline for a goaltender than a regular forward.

I’m excited to see if Douglas can repeat or even improve on his 2021-22 campaign.

I wasn’t sure what to make of the Max Ellis signing in the spring. He had a point per game first half with Notre Dame, then struggled to find the scoresheet in the back half with five points after the midway point.

Watching him at development camp and the rookie tournament, as well as some of his game-tape from last season, it’s clear what the Maple Leafs like in the player. Ellis is fast, he’s aggressive on the forecheck, and gets lots of shots on net. I like his profile as a “waterbug” type bottom-six winger who can bring energy to the lineup.

One thing I’ll especially be watching for this season is Ellis’ usage on the penalty kill. Ellis was a major part of Notre Dame’s NCAA best penalty kill last year and his upside as a tenacious penalty killer is a significant aspect of my intrigue in the player.

Despite signing an entry-level contract in the spring, Dmitry Ovchinnikov is back in the KHL for the 2022-23 campaign as per the terms of his KHL contract termination.

Ovchinnikov is such a fun player to watch. He can absolutely fly, his high-end speed is part of what has made him an intriguing prospect for multiple years. This speed, along with his skill, made him a dominant player at the Russian junior level.

The issue for Ovchinnikov has been a lack of ice-time against better competition. He struggled to gain a regular spot in the lineup with Sibir Novosibirsk in 2021-22, often dressing but playing fewer than five shifts. This is what pushed Ovchinnikov to sign with Toronto and make his AHL debut in the spring.

So far in 2022-23, Ovchinnikov has been a regular on Sibir’s fourth line. He’s had some good moments too, using his speed and energy to create a few chances. Ovchinnikov will need to add size to his 5-foot-11 frame and is still a long way from the NHL, but I like his potential as a bottom-six, “waterbug” winger.

I’ve been in Veeti Miettinen’s corner since his draft year and had him in my top 15 as recently as earlier this summer. But diving into his game more over the past couple of months, it’s tough to deny the struggles he experienced this past season to keep him that high in my rankings.

I still really like what Miettinen brings. He’s got a legitimately great shot and when he’s on his game, he can be a dynamic offensive presence. Unfortunately, we didn’t see it on a regular basis last year.

The main reason for Miettinen’s fall in my rankings is due to the lack of a supplementary aspect to his game and his lacklustre scoring at 5v5 last season. Prospects that have jumped over him have a clearer path to contributing to an NHL lineup, even if Miettinen has higher-end potential.

At the moment, Miettinen is an elite power-play scorer who has not quite found a way to be as effective at even strength. His high-end power-play skill won’t be enough to carry him through the professional ranks on its own.

Should Miettinen find the form he had in his freshman season again with more ice-time in 2022-23, he’ll bounce back up these rankings. But for now, I couldn’t justify keeping him above the likes of Max Ellis and Dmitry Ovchinnikov.

Ellis and Ovchinnikov have secondary skill sets that could allow them to be valuable fourth-liners even if they don’t reach their top-nine potential. I haven’t seen that same versatility from Miettinen and with his disappointing 2021-22 campaign, he’s one of the biggest fallers since mid-season.

Ranked in the top 100 on my consolidated draft board, Brandon Lisowsky was a textbook seventh-round swing. Undervalued due to size with good production in his draft year (he outscored Fraser Minten in the same league).

It wouldn’t surprise me whatsoever to see Lisowsky pop with Saskatoon in 2022-23. Not only is he going to get a ton of ice-time on a fairly average team, but there are also lots of playmakers on Saskatoon’s roster including Trevor Wong and Conner Roulette. After scoring 33 goals in his draft year, I don’t think a 40-goal campaign isn’t out of the question for Lisowsky.

Dennis Hildeby is one of the more fascinating selections in recent Maple Leafs’ draft history.

He’s got the size, listed at just over 6-foot-5. He has athleticism. But he’s also 21 years old, has had surgery on his hips, and has a whopping seven games of professional experience entering the 2022-23 schedule.

Toronto clearly believes in the player, committing an entry-level contract just after the draft.

Hildeby was fantastic last year in the Swedish U20 league and limited action in the SHL. The incredibly tiny sample size is what keeps Hildeby out of the top 20 for the time being. As he splits starts with Farjestad in 2022-23, we’ll begin to get a read on whether Hildeby’s 2021-22 was a mirage or whether he’s a legitimate goaltending prospect on the rise.

An overage, Russian goaltender with 17 games as a backup in the junior league? That’s about as stereotypical a late-round swing as you could get.

Jon Elkin’s first goalie recommendation in the draft is already looking great, as Peksa went from a little-known MHL backup to one of the top goaltenders in the league last year. He took over the starting job for Irbis Kazan and dominated, posting a .936 save percentage in a whopping 56 games.

Notably, Peksa won the starting job for the playoffs over the more experienced Artur Akhtyamov. It also earned him the nod for Kazan’s VHL team in 2022-23, where Peksa has been elite to start the season.

Peksa will ultimately have to show his talents at the KHL level before really climbing the rankings, but his athleticism and 6-foot-2 frame make him quite the intriguing netminder if his stellar VHL start continues.

Artur Akhtyamov had a strong second half after struggling in the early part of the 2021-22 VHL campaign, but the way the season ended had to leave a bitter taste in his mouth.

As mentioned, Akhtyamov was sent down to the MHL after the VHL season and began the playoffs starting over Slava Peksa. He was quickly replaced after a couple of lacklustre outings and Peksa never looked back.

On the heels of that situation in the MHL playoffs, Kazan chose Peksa over Akhtyamov to be their third-string goaltender in 2022-23 and start for their VHL affiliate. Akhtyamov was loaned to a non-affiliate VHL team, where he has had a strong start to the 2022-23 season.

Again, I need to see it over a larger sample in the KHL before I really get on board, but his second-half results in the VHL last year and fantastic start in 2022-23 have me optimistic about both Russian goaltenders in the Maple Leafs’ system.

Pavel Gogolev had a brutal 2021-22 campaign, there’s no sugar coating it.

After a great showing in a limited sample during 2020-21, Gogolev earned a quick upgrade to an NHL contract in the hopes that his excellent 13 games were real. The realities of a full-strength AHL were more than Gogolev appeared to be prepared for and his results took a nose dive.

The talent that made Gogolev a high-end OHLer and impactful in the short stint in 2021 is still there. He’s got a power forward’s frame, has a dangerous shot off the half wall on the power play, and has strong offensive instincts.

The problem is the rest needs quite a bit of work. He’s a below-average skater and was abysmal defensively last year. A full summer to reset was important, I’m ready to see Gogolev work for a top-nine role with the Marlies with the understanding of what a real AHL campaign is like.

Mikey Koster remains a player I quite like but decided to move him down the list as I couldn’t quite justify keeping him as high as I had him with his limited results in the NCAA.

Koster is a quality puck mover and power-play quarterback. I love his game in transition, he can fire pucks up the ice but also carry the puck and evade pressure when needed. He moves the puck well on the power play and has an underrated shot from the point.

He’s been buried on a deep Minnesota team the past two years and will likely be in a smaller role this year again. Once he gets legitimate top-four minutes and PP1 time, I think he’ll break out in a big way.

It’s easy to see why the Maple Leafs were intrigued enough by Nikita Grebyonkin’s game to make him a fifth-round pick despite being an overage player in the Russian junior league.

Grebyonkin has a good frame, listed at 6-foot-2, he can skate well, carry the puck, and is a talented passer, especially on the cycle. I’m tentative to get excited by MHL results (I’ve been disappointed many times), especially from older players, so I will need to see it from Grebyonkin at a higher level of competition before I really get on the bandwagon, but there’s something here.

Simply getting ice-time is the biggest hurdle to overcome for Grebyonkin at the moment. A full-time return to the MHL is redundant at this point but he has yet to break through for Metallurg Magnitogorsk, one of the top teams in the KHL. Early in the 2022-23 season, Grebyonkin has had more games where he has dressed and not played a shift than he has games where he played more than five minutes.

I’m not sure how this situation will play out, but it is something I’m keeping an eye on.

Joe Miller’s decision to return for an extra year of junior paid dividends with a breakout 68-point season with the Chicago Steel. He heads to Harvard to begin his NCAA career this year.

Miller had a good season but I’m not ready to shoot him up the rankings just yet. He was still only fourth on his team in scoring and size will be a serious issue for him as he climbs the ladder. I’m waiting for a listing from Harvard as I’m not sure when it was last updated, but Miller was noted as 5-foot-8 and 147 pounds in the USHL.

Miller is a late-round swing on upside with his puck skills and playmaking. His freshman campaign at Harvard will tell us a lot about where he is in his development.

I just don’t see it with Axel Rindell. He stagnated offensively with Jukurit in 2021-22, moved to Karpat and after a hot start with his new team, fell back into the same woes he had with Jukurit. At the same time he was inconsistent offensively, he was among the worst defensively in Liiga.

Rindell has lots of skill but the decision-making can be baffling. Even in the small sample we’ve seen through development camp and the rookie tournament, Rindell shined in moments but then washed it away with a brutal play that resulted in an odd-man rush the other way.

I was surprised Rindell got a contract after his tough season. The Maple Leafs like his skill and a move to a Marlies system that lends to his skill set could be good and move him up the rankings. After his 2021-22 campaign and lack of progression since being drafted, I need to see it first.

Braeden Kressler shined at the Maple Leafs’ development camp and rookie tournament in 2021. The performance earned him an entry-level contract in the hopes that he was a hidden gem that would break out returning to action after the cancelled OHL season.

That’s not how it played out. Kressler was shuffled down Flint’s lineup early in the season before missing an extended period with an elbow injury.

I was hoping to see a rejuvenated Kressler at development camp and the rookie tournament this summer. Kressler didn’t particularly stand out at dev camp and he didn’t play at the rookie tournament, seemingly due to injury.

Kressler needs to stay healthy and get a full season under his belt to get back on track. I still like his defensive value and tenacity on the forecheck but he has a significant amount of ground to make up to make his signing worthwhile.

John Fusco is entering his Draft +4 season and has barely played at a high level.

Playing in the US high school system, Fusco only played a half-season in the USHL before joining Harvard last year. Limited to a bottom-pairing/seventh defenseman role with the Crimson, Fusco decided to enter the transfer portal to find a program where he could get much-needed ice-time.

He’ll make his debut with Dartmouth in the fall where he should slot into their top four. Fusco is a threat on the power play and based on what we saw at development camp, loves to jump into the play. I’ll be keeping a close eye on him early in the year, I think he could surprise with Dartmouth.

20 games with no points, it was a tough go for Wyatt Schingoethe in his first season in the NCAA.

Buried on a deep and experienced Western Michigan squad, Schingoethe struggled to break into the lineup. After spending much of the year on the fourth line or as the extra forward, he was a scratch for the Broncos in the postseason.

Schingoethe is behind the eight ball to begin 2022-23 as well. He was not in the lineup for their opening series against Alaska-Anchorage, presumably due to injury. Hopefully, he can get back on track this year.

The sliver of hope I had remaining for Kalle Loponen has been lost. Relegated to the extra defenseman on his Liiga team early in the 2022-23 season, the low chance of Loponen enjoying a breakout year and earning an NHL contract before his exclusive rights expire in the spring are all but gone already.

Loponen had some good moments at the junior level in the OHL and in Finland, particularly as a power play quarterback. Loponen will have a career in Finland as he continues to progress past the 2022-23 campaign, it likely just won’t come as part of the Maple Leafs organization.

Back in 2017, Ryan O’Connell was a unique seventh-round swing out of St. Andrew’s College. Simply put, he hasn’t shown NHL potential at any point since being drafted.

O’Connell was set to become an unrestricted free agent in the summer, but with the NCAA granting a fifth year of eligibility for student-athletes due to COVID, he will return to the NCAA this season. As a result, Toronto keeps his exclusive rights for an extra year.

O’Connell transfers to Michigan Tech for his final collegiate season where he will likely play in the top four and look to earn an AHL or ECHL contract somewhere at the end of the 2022-23 campaign.

Kyle Dubas’ first seventh-round pick, Semyon Kizimov has just four career games in the KHL at 22 years of age. It took until his fourth season in the VHL to surpass the half-point per game mark. That’s all that needs to be said.

FULL RANKINGS