Cushman's Leafs prospect rankings: 2022-23 mid-season edition

Somehow, we’re already approaching the mid-way point of the NHL season. For most European and junior leagues, we’ve passed the halfway mark already. It’s time to dive into the Toronto Maple Leafs prospect pool once again.

Before we get into the rankings, let’s establish the criteria to be eligible for this list. The player must meet each of the following:

• NHL exclusive rights are owned by the Maple Leafs, either by being signed or drafted by the club.

  • This excludes players on AHL or ECHL contracts. The likes of Noel Hoefenmayer, Marshall Rifai, and Luke Cavallin, among others, are not included.

  • Though I haven’t included this group in my Leafs prospect rankings, I have included a U26 Marlies prospect ranking at the end of this post.

• They are under the age of 24. There has to be an age cutoff at some point and while some players over 24 could still be considered prospects, particularly goaltenders, I feel this is a fair age to make the distinction between “prospect” and “depth player”.

  • The U24 age cutoff means players such as Mac Hollowell, Joseph Woll, and Joey Anderson, among others, are not included.

• The cutoff for experience is 25 career NHL games. This is the cutoff for Calder Trophy eligibility, so it only makes sense to do it here as well.

  • The 25-game cutoff means U24 players Timothy Liljegren, Nick Robertson, and Rasmus Sandin are not included.

• Finally, Rodion Amirov remains omitted from my rankings. Though Amirov is hopeful to return to action in 2023, I still don’t see a legitimate reason to evaluate him as a hockey commodity at this time. There’s a massive hill for him to climb to play high-level hockey again and there’s no new game tape to analyze. Until Amirov is cleared to play, he’ll remain off of my rankings. As always, I wish him the best in his recovery.

The following are the factors considered when forming my rankings. While it isn’t a perfect science by any means, this is roughly the order of highest weight to least:

1. High-end potential/skill

2. Performance/production from the 2022-23 season

3. NHL readiness

4. Likelihood of making the NHL

5. Performance/production prior to the 2022-23 season

6. Quality of competition

The plus/minus change for each prospect is relative to their placement on my last long-form rankings in October. The movement is also relative to prospects that remain on the list from the prior ranking. For example, a player doesn’t get a “plus-one” for moving up due to a player graduating from the list. A player also doesn’t get a “minus-one” for moving down the list due to a player being added to the organization.

From the October rankings, Nick Robertson has graduated due to NHL games played. Curtis Douglas and Axel Rindell have left the organization.

Enjoy!

Matt Knies continues to do Matt Knies things in the NCAA. Making up one-third of the best line in the country, Knies is still an elite offensive threat with his physicality and scoring ability.

Whether it’s on the forecheck, forcing turnovers, or as a net-front presence, Knies is just too difficult to handle for NCAA opposition.

While Knies’ physicality often grabs the attention of Leafs fans, it’s his transition ability that has helped him become such a dynamic force with the University of Minnesota. Even playing alongside talented players in Logan Cooley and Jimmy Snuggerud, Knies has been the primary puck carrier and remains one of the top forwards in the nation in controlled entries and exits.

If Knies were just a big body that relied on his talented linemates to get the puck into the offensive zone, I’d have significant concerns over the hype and his translatability to the next level. But that’s not Matt Knies. He’s a legitimate primary play driver at this level even when playing with Cooley and Snuggerud.

Knies has continued to take a bigger role this season with the Golden Gophers, seeing more minutes on the penalty kill in addition to his major presence at 5v5 and on the power play.

The Golden Gophers expect to go all the way to the national championship game. If they do, it could make things tricky for Knies on the NHL front.

Assuming Knies signs immediately following the end of Minnesota’s season and that the Golden Gophers go all the way to the Frozen Four again, that would leave just three regular season games for Knies to potentially get into before the Stanley Cup playoffs.

The jump from the NCAA to the NHL is a massive one and I certainly don’t think Knies will immediately be a top-nine scorer upon signing his entry-level contract. Don’t expect Knies to jump into Toronto’s playoff lineup in the spring, especially if Minnesota goes deep and Knies only has a couple of regular-season tilts to experience before the playoffs.

Don’t be scared by Topi Niemela’s drop in production, he’s just fine.

Karpat’s addition of David Rundblad in the offseason combined with a natural regression to the mean has seen Niemela’s scoring fall off quite a bit. He’s getting fewer offensive opportunities than in his record-breaking U20 campaign last season.

The good news is that Niemela is still driving positive results, even if the eye-catching points haven’t been there. His 54.4% Corsi-for is third on his team among defensemen and top 30 league-wide. It’s also an improvement versus his 2021-22 in this statistic.

Niemela has continued to grow as an all-around defenseman this campaign. Having been drafted as a blue-liner more renowned for his defensive game than his offense, it’s been impressive to see Niemela transform into an activating, two-way presence.

He’ll make his AHL debut in 2023 at the conclusion of the Liiga season, a stint I’m very intrigued to watch. As a right-shot defenseman with puck-moving skills, there’s top-four upside in Niemela. He’s by far Toronto’s best defense prospect.

Who would’ve thought 2022 would be the year that everyone became a Pontus Holmberg fan? Whether it’s Sheldon Keefe, Mitch Marner, or Auston Matthews, nobody has anything bad to say about Holmberg.

The 23-year-old has stepped into an NHL bottom-six center role and has become a lineup mainstay, consistently producing positive results.

Holmberg was a quick standout in my viewings while tracking Marlies games this season. He regularly carried the puck through the neutral zone and created scoring chances at 5v5, even if they weren’t amounting to points early on.

Sure enough, that positional prowess has been a major reason why he’s become a regular for the Maple Leafs. It just seems like Holmberg’s always in the right spot, putting the team in a more advantageous position with a vast majority of his touches.

Thanks to Cam Charron’s tracked data, we can see this impact through his transition skill. Holmberg has gained the zone with control on 51% of his entries. The others to do so at a 50% clip or better? Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and John Tavares.

Holmberg’s also exiting the zone with control 67% of the time, putting him in line with defensive stalwarts Pierre Engvall, David Kampf, and Zach Aston-Reese.

All that being said, Holmberg certainly isn’t a perfect player. He stands to improve a fair bit offensively; Holmberg ranks last among regular Leafs forwards in individual shot attempts and individual expected goals according to Natural Stat Trick, both per 60 and at 5v5.

Overall, Holmberg’s quick adaptation to the NHL bodes well for his longevity in the lineup. That immediate readiness pushes him ahead of prospects that have higher upside but a much longer path to make the league.

I’ve gone back and forth on where to rank Fraser Minten over the past few weeks.

The 2022 second-rounder has seen his offensive production improve compared to his draft year but has done so primarily on the man advantage. That lack of 5v5 success has given me pause for much of the campaign.

Minten has a lot of individual tools, whether that be flashes of high-end passing, his shot from the half wall, intelligence in transition, or defensive zone awareness. Consistently working all of those elements into his game is what can take him from a prospect with third-line upside to a player that could potentially contribute higher in the lineup.

Minten’s recent stretch of play has showcased exactly what makes him an enticing prospect. When those aforementioned tools blend together, it makes Minten a dominant player at the junior level. His recent back-to-back hat tricks are evidence.

In the new year, I’m keeping a keen eye on his 5v5 production. Yes, the shot is lethal when he has time and space on the power play. Finding ways to create space for himself at even strength to become a threat at 5v5, not just on the man advantage, is vital to unlocking that higher potential.

At first glance, it’s easy to be disappointed by Roni Hirvonen’s season. His rate of production has dropped despite playing higher in the lineup in what was supposed to be a breakout campaign in Finland.

And while that remains true, I certainly don’t think Hirvonen’s stock should drop much. For starters, HIFK has struggled to score as a team overall. Hirvonen is second on his team in goals and fourth in scoring despite having just eight tallies and 14 points.

More importantly, Hirvonen has continued to drive extremely good shot shares at 5v5. His 60.2% Corsi-for ranks second on HIFK among regulars and sixth Liiga-wide. That puts him in the exact same spot he was in 2021-22 in this statistic.

I’m very intrigued to see what Hirvonen does when he makes his AHL debut in 2023 following the end of the Liiga season. In a more offensive environment with the Marlies, I wouldn’t be surprised whatsoever to see his numbers pop given his consistently strong play-driving in Finland.

I was a big fan of Nick Moldenhauer leading up to the 2022 draft and that remains true months into his tenure in the Leafs organization. Moldenhauer isn’t the biggest or fastest player on the ice, but he works hard and is incredibly well-rounded in the offensive zone.

Moldenhauer has showcased his offensive talents repeatedly with the Chicago Steel this season. He’s beat goaltenders with his shot from the half wall, continues to be a strong presence around the net, and has connected on plenty of passes with his highly skilled linemates. He’s also been versatile, lining up at all three forward positions.

As such, it comes as little surprise that Moldenhauer ranks second in the USHL in points per game among non-NTDP skaters.

Heading to the University of Michigan for 2023-24, I’m very excited to see what Moldenhauer can do at the NCAA level and if he can push for a spot on Team Canada at the 2024 world juniors.

In my pre-season rankings, I wrote that “Voit could very well push to be one of the top scorers in the OHL.” Fast forward three months and Voit isn’t just one of the top scorers, he’s the top scorer in the OHL.

Voit has decimated the OHL this season, picking apart opponents with his deft playmaking. He leads Sarnia in scoring by 21 and has more than double the points of third on the team.

As a small winger, Voit was expected to dominate at this level by the end of his junior career. The challenge will be whether he can be as effective at the next level when he turns pro following the 2022-23 campaign.

Voit isn’t limited to perimeter playmaking, he creates high-danger looks in many different ways. While he can absolutely thread perfect passes from the outside, he just as often plays give and goes off the rush. Voit will attack the middle, attracting the attention of every defender, before handing off to a wide-open teammate. This diverse bag of tricks bodes well for his ability to adapt to the next level.

There’s also been improved anticipation from Voit this campaign. Both in the offensive and defensive zones, Voit has managed to read opponents and force turnovers.

As with any diminutive winger at the junior level, it’s hard to get truly excited about a player before they begin to play professional games. Still, Voit has done everything at the OHL stage to warrant the growing hype (even if USA Hockey disagrees).

It’s no secret I’ve liked Semyon Der-Arguchintsev’s game for a while, though I’ve long had concerns over his translatability to the higher levels. Those concerns are beginning to fade.

Der-Arguchintsev has been a difference-maker for the Marlies all season long, especially at even strength. He’s been a catalyst at 5v5, leading the team in goals for percentage with a 17-11 differential.

He’s done so not strictly because of his wizard-like skill entering the zone, or even his excellent playmaking. Der-Arguchintsev’s transformed his game due to a commitment at the other end of the ice.

Time and time again while watching Marlies games, Der-Arguchintsev is looping back in the defensive zone to help break the puck out with control. He leads the Marlies in controlled exit percentage and has the most defensive zone touches among forwards, based on my tracked data.

Der-Arguchintsev also has an underrated ability to steal pucks off of opponents and snag loose pucks off of the boards. He may not be a defensive forward in the typical sense, but Der-Arguchintsev has undoubtedly been an impact defensive presence this season.

The next question is whether he will be afforded the opportunity to do it in the NHL. There were a lot of growing pains in Der-Arguchintsev’s rookie season that allowed him to learn and develop into the top-six AHL play driver he is now. He’ll likely need that same time to become comfortable at the next level, to understand what plays he can and can’t make, and how he can be effective at even strength.

I hope that opportunity comes in Toronto.

Nick Abruzzese is slowly starting to find his groove at the AHL level after a bit of an underwhelming start. He’s been a standout in tracking games all season long, now it’s beginning to show up on the scoresheet.

Abruzzese is among the Marlies’ leaders in controlled entry percentage, controlled exit percentage, and 5v5 chance contributions. Specifically, he leads all Marlies regulars in 5v5 chance assists.

The concern regarding Abruzzese remains his smaller frame, listed at a generous 5-foot-11 and 183 pounds, in conjunction with his lack of speed. He’s been able to be an effective transition player and an adept in-zone playmaker at the USHL, NCAA, and AHL levels. Doing so as an NHLer is a very different task.

He’s deceptively older having been drafted as an overage player and missing a year of NCAA hockey due to COVID cancellations. Still, there’s top-nine potential in Abruzzese if given time.

Injuries have limited Filip Kral to just nine games this season. In his minimal action, I’ve quite liked what I’ve seen.

Kral isn’t going to wow you, that’s not his style as a well-rounded defenseman. I particularly like his ability to move the puck in the defensive zone and defend the blue line. Kral’s shown well in his small sample of Marlies games in both areas based on my tracked data.

He didn’t look out of place in his brief NHL stint either. I feel comfortable with Kral as an anchor on the Marlies’ top pairing when healthy and as one of the first recalls in case of injury.

Kral requires waivers beginning next season and while I’m not too concerned about losing him, I wonder if Toronto looks to give him a shot on the roster as the seventh defenseman come the fall.

I’ve been underwhelmed by Alex Steeves this season. After an impressive rookie campaign with the Marlies, I was hoping to see Steeves take a step to become a play driver at 5v5 and push for a roster spot with the Maple Leafs.

Steeves leads the Marlies in entry attempts per game but ranks among the lowest on the team in controlled entry percentage. He’s also content to flip the puck out of the defensive zone, ranking near the bottom of the team in controlled exit percentage.

While Steeves can likely step into an NHL fourth-line role essentially right now, I’m not sure there’s much upside beyond that in part to his lack of controlled plays. We’ve already seen this season that the chip-outs and dump-ins have allowed opponents to counterattack with Steeves on the ice, given his negative 5v5 goal differential.

Steeves works hard on the forecheck, he has deceptive speed, and he can kill penalties. There’s an NHL role for him, he might even be a solid player if he has linemates who carry the puck and allow him to do the dirty work on the forecheck and around the net.

I’m not going to pretend to know anything about goaltenders. I barely know anything about forwards and defensemen. But Dennis Hildeby checks all of the boxes you look for in a prospect goaltender.

He has the size, listed at just above 6-foot-5. He has the athleticism, as showcased numerous times this season with highlight reel saves. And he has the results, posting a .930 save percentage across 18 career SHL games.

Hildeby is already 21 years old despite being a 2022 draft pick, so an accelerated timeline is reasonable to expect. It may be difficult for him to get AHL or ECHL games at the end of the SHL campaign given the amount of goaltending options already in the Leafs system, but I hope we get to see the “Hilde-beast” make his North American debut in 2023. He’s really captured my attention.

I still love Ryan Tverberg, so don’t get the wrong idea by his drop down the rankings. This is more of a case of players that were previously below him having excellent seasons and showcasing higher upside or more NHL readiness than it is Tverberg having a bad season.

In fact, Tverberg has proved his breakout sophomore campaign wasn’t a fluke with his strong play as a junior. He leads UConn with 10 goals and 20 points through 21 contests, playing a massive role on a Huskies team that has surprised to be ranked in the top ten in the country.

I wonder if Tverberg could look to turn pro at the end of this season. He plays a pro-style with his tenacity and speed, making him a seamless fit with how the Marlies are currently constructed. He also turns 21 later this month.

I doubt Toronto is concerned about Tverberg walking as a free agent if he returns for a senior season given he’s from Richmond Hill, so it may just be as simple as letting him play out his NCAA eligibility. That being said, don’t rule out the possibility of Tverberg making the jump to the Marlies at the end of 2022-23.

William Villeneuve hasn’t had an amazing start to his AHL career, but that was to be expected. There are always going to be growing pains making the transition from junior to the professional level, especially for an offensive-leaning defenseman.

In Villeneuve’s case, I’ve seen enough positives to keep him in the same spot on the rankings. By my tracked data, he’s been the Marlies’ best regular defenseman at entering the zone with control. While it hasn’t always been perfect, Villeneuve’s also been among the Marlies’ best defensemen in limiting defensive zone turnovers and exiting the zone with control.

Yes, Villeneuve needs to work on his gap control and improve his skating. But 6-foot-2 defensemen who can move the puck are a valuable commodity. Villeneuve has a long path ahead of him to become a quality NHL player. His early AHL returns have been a mixed bag but the upside is obvious when watching him play.

Nabbing Brandon Lisowsky late in the seventh round was a tidy bit of business by the Leafs.

Lisowsky has impressed on Saskatoon’s dominant top line alongside Egor Sidorov and Trevor Wong. After a hot December in which he tallied two hat tricks, he’s on the 40-goal pace I hoped to see out of him prior to the season.

Lisowsky hasn’t been reliant on special teams to get his looks either. 12 of his 19 goals have come at 5v5, maintaining the effectiveness at even strength he showed as a draft eligible.

I’ve said it numerous times, but I can’t help but get Nick Robertson vibes from Lisowsky. He’s another smaller, hard-working sniper who can beat goaltenders clean, especially at the junior level.

Mikko Kokkonen has rounded into form with the Marlies over the past couple of weeks. After being part of an early rotation on defense, a brief stint with the Growlers where he played a lot of minutes has helped Kokkonen acclimate to North America.

Kokkonen’s production has never been eye-catching, rather it’s been the defensive maturity that has made him an intriguing prospect over the past handful of years. On a very inexperienced Marlies defense, Kokkonen is one of three blue-liners that has outscored the opposition at even strength. Only Noel Hoefenmayer and Marshall Rifai are above 50% goals for as well.

My concern regarding Kokkonen remains the lack of a standout quality. He’s going to need to get stronger and become a real defensive stalwart if he’s to become an NHL option. Defending the net front, gap control, and controlled defensive zone plays are key areas for Kokkonen to continue to grow if he’s to make the Leafs one day.

An injury kept Mikhail Abramov out of action through training camp and the early part of the season. Coming off of a lackluster rookie campaign with the Marlies, that injury put him behind the eight ball as he returned to action in late October.

Abramov has remained a bit of a rotational piece in the Marlies’ bottom six. He’s been solid and has shown flashes, but I haven’t seen much on a regular basis from Abramov in the AHL that suggests he can be a top-nine NHLer. The dangerous dual-threat scorer we saw in the QMJHL has yet to translate to the AHL.

2023 will be a big year for Abramov. Taking a step in the second half of the AHL season is a must if Abramov is going to be a legitimate top-six option for the Marlies in 2023-24.

Artur Akhtyamov has bounced back in a massive way after a fairly mediocre DY+2 campaign. He’s become the best goaltender in the VHL since his loan to Neftyanik Almetievsk, sporting an insane .949 save percentage through 27 games.

I’m glad Akhtyamov is with Neftyanik and can focus solely on the VHL season, rather than looking for a KHL call-up. I have no clue if this is actually the case, but it seems like not having the distraction of being one call away from the KHL has really helped his game after struggling with Bars Kazan last year.

Akhtyamov has been stellar, but the lack of a sample for goaltenders at this age out of the VHL gives me a slight pause to really push him up the list. The VHL is a young league, dating back to 2010. Only Igor Shesterkin and Daniil Tarasov have played a regular role in the league and gone on to become NHLers, with both graduating from the VHL by Akhtyamov’s age.

That’s not to diminish Akhtyamov’s success. But the fact remains we’re in a bit of uncharted territory here with his development path should he go on to become an NHLer.

As Akhtyamov hopefully makes a full-time jump to the KHL in 2023, that will be when he can look to truly surge up my rankings with more quality play.

Small, speedy forwards that are tenacious on the forecheck, make controlled plays in the defensive zone, and can surprise with skill are some of my favorite types of players to watch. There’s a reason I’m the only person in Toronto with a Denis Malgin jersey, after all. Max Ellis checks all of those boxes.

I don’t think Ellis has much upside beyond a bottom-six winger, but it’s easy to see a scenario where he excels as a fourth-line penalty-killer who brings energy to every shift.

He’s so quick, both accelerating and at the top end. If Ellis is going to become an NHL player, I think his value as a penalty killer will be a major aspect. There’s some Michael Grabner-esque ability to create shorthanded breakaways to be unlocked.

Ellis is trigger-happy and is too prone to shooting from non-dangerous areas. Working on his playmaking and not just throwing everything toward the net is a vital area to improve to become more of an offensive threat.

Keith Petruzzelli was likely in line to receive an NHL contract at the end of the 2022-23 season with his progress in the organization. That timeline was accelerated when Ilya Samsonov went down with an injury and the Maple Leafs needed to add another goaltender to the roster.

Make no mistake, that contract was well earned. Petruzzelli almost certainly could’ve signed an NHL contract out of the NCAA, but chose to come to Toronto on an AHL deal. He excelled with the Growlers in 2021-22 and impressed early in the 2022-23 campaign with the Marlies.

Again, I know little about the mechanics of goaltending, but I’ve noticed Petruzzelli relies on his 6-foot-5 frame quite a bit. He plays shallow in his crease and makes smaller, quick movements rather than playing a more aggressive style.

Petruzzelli turns 24 in February and will graduate from my rankings by the time my next long-form list comes out. The Leafs’ goaltending pipeline is fascinating and I’m really interested to see how the Marlies/Growlers manage everyone’s playing time in 2023.

A mid-season loan to Amur Khabarovsk has allowed Nikita Grebyonkin to showcase his talents at the KHL level. He’s been playing as a legitimate top-six winger for Amur, playing 16:30 per game and producing in those minutes. Grebyonkin has four goals and 12 points in 25 contests with Amur.

As an overage draft pick out of the MHL, I was apprehensive to get too excited by his post-draft highlights. So far in his KHL tenure, we’ve seen Grebyonkin’s passing ability translate to the next level. He’s particularly adept under pressure and along the boards on the cycle.

Listed at 6-foot-2, as Grebyonkin adds more muscle to his frame, he’ll only become even better at handling pressure along the boards. He’s certainly a rising name to keep an eye on over the next couple of years.

Dmitry Ovchinnikov has pretty much exclusively played as a KHL fourth-liner this season. His production hasn’t been anything exceptional with only five goals and eight points through 47 contests, but at least he’s actually getting consistent games this year.

I still really like what Ovchinnikov brings to the table as a potential energy fourth-liner. He has blistering speed and enough skill to put his skating to good use. It’s easy to see a scenario where he becomes a quality forechecker as well.

Ultimately, I haven’t seen enough from Ovchinnikov above the junior level to suggest he can be more than a fun fourth-liner or complementary winger. He’ll make the move to the AHL on a full-time basis in 2023, where we will begin to get a good feel on whether or not Ovchinnikov has higher upside that has yet to be unlocked while being buried on a KHL roster.

Frankly, I don’t quite know what to think of Veeti Miettinen. He has a lethal shot but hasn’t found a way to convert that into consistent goals at 5v5. I also haven’t seen him dominate shifts in the same way he did at times as a freshman over the past year and a half.

Miettinen has improved his rate of production, exceeding the point-per-game mark through 18 contests, but remains fifth in team scoring. By his junior season, I was hoping Miettinen would be among the dominant offensive forces in the NCAA and pushing toward an NHL contract. We haven’t seen that level from him yet.

The tools are enticing, especially for a sixth-round pick, but I haven’t seen consistent offensive dominance at even strength from Miettinen yet to suggest he can be more than a power-play threat at the professional level.

Slava Peksa is an incredibly fun goaltender to watch. His athleticism constantly jumps out as he aggressively challenges shooters and makes sprawling efforts in the crease.

His transition to the professional level in the VHL has gone well. He sports a .920 save percentage through 32 appearances as the clear starter for Bars Kazan.

Getting consistent minutes can sometimes be an issue for goaltenders as they make their way up the ranks. That hasn’t been an issue for Peksa, who has played a significant amount of games in the past two seasons. His 32 games are tied for second among VHL goaltenders, which comes after ranking third in MHL games in 2021-22 when he played 56 times for Irbis Kazan.

Artur Akhtyamov struggled in his DY+2 campaign before really finding his groove in his DY+3. Peksa’s performed better at the same age in the VHL. Gaining consistency and finding that next level will be key in 2023.

After an injury-riddled 2022-23 campaign, Braeden Kressler is healthy and showing what made him worthy of an entry-level contract as an undrafted free agent in 2021.

Kressler is a “waterbug”. He’s tenacious all over the ice, working hard to disrupt the opposition. In possession, he has a solid shot, can score around the net, and has shown a bit more playmaking upside this year.

Kressler’s nearly tripled his goal output from 2021-22 in fewer games, potting 14 goals through 23 games after tallying just five in 28 contests last year.

Back on track after a rough DY+1, I’m quite interested to see how 2023 plays out for Kressler. In the short term, Flint could look to trade him before the OHL trade deadline. The Firebirds traded Brennan Othmann earlier in the season but currently sit in a playoff position.

If Kressler doesn’t go deep in the OHL playoffs, whether that be with Flint or another team, he would be an intriguing addition to the Growlers roster for the Kelly Cup playoffs. Later in the year, the Leafs will have a decision to make regarding his development. Kressler could begin his pro career in 2023-24, either with the Marlies or Growlers, or return to the OHL for an overage season.

Needless to say, 2023 shapes up to be a pivotal year for Kressler.

Mikey Koster has started to get more top-four opportunities this season at the University of Minnesota. I quite like his ability to move the puck, both passing and skating up the ice. He’s also shown good skill when activating in the offensive zone.

As a 5-foot-10 defenseman, it remains to be seen whether his skills are high-end enough to become an NHL option. Using Elite Prospects’ search tools, there are 16 defensemen that have played NHL games this season listed at 5-foot-10 or shorter. Past that, only eight could be deemed regulars.

• Erik Brannstrom, Ottawa Senators

• Jacob Bryson, Buffalo Sabres

• Samuel Girard, Colorado Avalanche

• Quinn Hughes, Vancouver Canucks

• Torey Krug, St. Louis Blues

• Nils Lundkvist, Dallas Stars

• Jared Spurgeon, Minnesota Wild

• Troy Stecher, Arizona Coyotes

If you’re going to be a small blue-liner in the NHL, you’ve gotta be pretty good.

Koster’s big breakout opportunity likely won’t come until his final NCAA season in 2023-24. The Golden Gophers likely have two or three top-four defensemen turn pro, leaving a major role for Koster to make a push for an entry-level contract in 2024.

There are a few things I feel we can safely say about Pavel Gogolev at this point:

• His excellent but brief AHL results in 2021 that earned him an NHL contract was a bit of a mirage due to the depleted talent level of the league in the COVID year.

• He remains a talented offensive player with a threatening shot, as evidenced by his superb results at the ECHL level across two stints.

• While those offensive tools are intriguing, his lack of speed and supplementary game make it difficult to see him becoming an NHL player.

We likely see Gogolev back with the Marlies sometime in the new year. If he gets a chance in the top nine alongside other good offensive players, I’m quite interested to see how he responds after his extended run in the ECHL.

Joe Miller has had the good fortune of playing with Sean Farrell and Matt Coronato as a freshman at Harvard. Two of the best players in the NCAA, Farrell has 20 points and Coronato has 17. Miller lags behind with 10 through 13 games (boosted by a three-point outing on New Year’s Day), a good total for a freshman but slightly underwhelming considering who is playing with.

The diminutive winger made the right decision to return to the USHL in 2021-22 and it has made his transition to the NCAA significantly smoother. It’s promising to see the Harvard staff believe in his skill enough to put him on the top line. If Farrell and Coronato turn pro at the end of the season, I’m interested to see how Miller does without them as a sophomore.

In need of minutes after a strange development path, John Fusco transferred to Dartmouth in the summer. While the Big Green has struggled as a team with just two regulation wins through 13 games, Fusco has gotten that time on-ice he desperately needed.

Fusco has tallied seven points in 14 games, putting him in a tie for third in team scoring. The 2020 seventh-rounder likely won’t be making a big impression in the near future, but as he gets more acquainted at the NCAA level, his offensive skillset may make him an intriguing player by his senior campaign.

Wyatt Schingoethe finally scored his first NCAA goal in his 25th game this past month. The 2020 seventh-rounder has struggled to find consistent ice time on a deep Western Michigan squad but has slowly begun to play on a more regular basis. Schingoethe doesn’t have any standout qualities but as a well-rounded player, could be someone to keep an eye on later in his NCAA career.

Ryan O’Connell transferred to Michigan Tech for his fifth and final season of NCAA competition, where he’s played as a bottom-pairing defenseman on a top-20 team in the country. While the 2017 seventh-rounder will sign a minor league contract somewhere after the NCAA season ends, I’d be surprised if it occurs with the Marlies or Growlers.

Semyon Kizimiov has seen an uptick in production in the VHL since his move to Gornyak-UGMK in 2021. He’s recently been loaned to Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk, which bodes well for his future KHL prospects. The 2018 seventh-rounder has only played six KHL games, hopefully he can carve out a consistent role in the league in 2023.

Kalle Loponen has not taken the next step at the professional level and has recently been sent down to the Finnish second division. He had some good results in the Finnish junior ranks as a high-end power-play quarterback but he’s struggled mightily in Liiga. He’ll be removed from Toronto’s reserve list after his exclusive rights expire on June 1, 2023.

Complete Rankings

Marlies prospect rankings

Finally, as a little treat if you’ve made it this far, I also updated my Marlies prospect rankings. The plus/minus is relative to the rankings I put out for The Leafs Nation in the summer. Keith Petruzzelli moved to the Maple Leafs prospect rankings, while Brennan Kapcheck aged out. Brandon Kruse was signed after I put out the original rankings.